China Removes Tariffs on African Countries Except Eswatini
China has announced the removal of tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, marking a significant expansion of its zero-tariff regime. This policy, which aims to boost trade and strengthen China’s soft power in Africa, now covers 53 African nations and will remain in effect until April 2028. The exclusion of Eswatini is linked to its diplomatic ties with Taiwan, which China does not recognize.
Details of the Zero-Tariff Regime
As of December 2024, China had already implemented a duty-free policy for 33 least-developed African countries. The recent expansion extends this benefit to a total of 53 African nations, excluding Eswatini. This move makes China the first major economy to offer unilateral zero-tariff treatment to Africa on such a broad scale.
The policy is designed to last until 30 April 2028, but it remains unclear what will happen after that date. China has positioned itself as a trade liberalizer and an Africa-friendly economic partner, contrasting with recent US tariff policies that affected some African countries.
Economic Implications for African Countries Except Eswatini
Analysts suggest that while the zero-tariff regime may enhance China’s influence in Africa, the economic benefits for African exporters could be uneven. Tariffs are not considered the primary barrier to African exports, which face structural challenges such as limited industrial capacity, weak logistics, and a heavy reliance on raw commodity exports.
African exports to China mainly consist of minerals and raw materials like crude oil and metallic ores. The continent’s trade deficit with China has been growing, reaching approximately $102 billion last year, a 65% increase. This imbalance is driven by Chinese exports to Africa far exceeding African exports to China.
More developed African economies, such as South Africa and Morocco, are expected to benefit more from the zero-tariff policy due to their greater industrial capacity and export readiness. In contrast, less developed countries may see limited gains.
Sectoral Impact and Future Prospects
The expansion of the zero-tariff regime could particularly benefit African agricultural exports. Products like coffee, tea, macadamia nuts, avocados, and leather are expected to gain improved access to Chinese markets. This could help elevate rural incomes, improve productivity, and contribute to poverty reduction in rural areas.
Experts note that the short-term economic impact will likely be modest and concentrated in countries with existing export capacity. However, the long-term potential could be more significant if African countries manage to diversify their exports, expand production, and move up the value chain.
Changing consumer demand in China, such as increased consumption of coffee and nuts, may open new market opportunities for African producers. This shift could help reduce the trade deficit and create more opportunities for African companies to prosper.
Challenges Beyond Tariff Removal
Despite the tariff reductions, many African economies continue to face structural constraints that tariffs alone cannot resolve. These include limited industrial capacity, inadequate infrastructure, and a dependence on exporting unprocessed raw materials. Such factors limit the ability of African countries to fully capitalize on improved market access.
Fiscal policy experts emphasize that while the zero-tariff policy offers short-term support for foreign exchange earnings and modest boosts to sectors like agriculture, mining, and logistics, it does not address the deeper structural issues. Persistent trade deficits and reliance on raw material exports constrain domestic revenue mobilization and limit job creation and tax bases needed for public services.
Analysts urge African governments to leverage improved market access to support industrial policies aimed at economic restructuring and diversification.
Political Context of Eswatini’s Exclusion
Eswatini remains the only African country excluded from China’s zero-tariff regime due to its diplomatic relations with Taiwan. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and opposes official ties between Taiwan and other countries.
The exclusion is seen as a political move with limited economic impact on Eswatini. Some experts suggest that this situation may prompt Taiwan to offer Eswatini additional economic concessions to maintain their relationship.
Recent diplomatic tensions have included Taiwan’s leader canceling a trip to Eswatini after other African countries denied overflight rights, reportedly under pressure from China. This situation highlights how China uses its economic and diplomatic influence in Africa to assert its political positions.
By excluding Eswatini, China demonstrates the conditional nature of its relations with African countries, contrasting its treatment of nations aligned with Taiwan.