Five charts showing how UAE’s departure may impact OPEC’s oil price control
Five charts showing: The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) marks a significant moment for the oil cartel and the global oil market. The BBC has examined this development through five charts that illustrate OPEC’s role in influencing oil prices and the potential consequences of the UAE’s departure.
OPEC’s formation and purpose
OPEC was established in 1960 by five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Its primary goal has been to coordinate oil production among member countries to stabilize prices and ensure steady revenue. Over time, the group expanded to include Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and the Republic of the Congo.
In 2016, OPEC formed a broader alliance known as OPEC+ by joining forces with 10 additional oil producers, including Russia. This alliance aimed to better manage oil supply and influence global prices.
How OPEC influences oil prices
OPEC controls oil prices by adjusting the amount of oil its members produce and sell. When the group agrees to increase production, it aims to lower prices by boosting supply. Conversely, reducing production is intended to keep prices high when demand is low.
Historical examples include the 1973 oil embargo by Arab producers, which led to a sharp price increase and fuel rationing, and the coordinated production cuts during the coronavirus pandemic to support prices amid falling demand. More recently, OPEC+ has adjusted production in response to geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
UAE’s role within OPEC and the impact of its departure
The UAE has been a major player within OPEC, ranking as the world’s third-largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq as of 2025. It produced approximately 3.1 million barrels of oil per day, making it OPEC’s fourth-largest producer.
Despite the UAE’s significant production, the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage for about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas—has constrained exports from Gulf countries. As a result, experts suggest that in the short term, the UAE’s exit will have little immediate impact on oil exports or prices.
However, once independent, the UAE could potentially increase its production by around one million barrels per day. Shortly after announcing its departure, the UAE’s state-owned oil company, Adnoc, revealed plans to accelerate growth through $55 billion worth of projects between 2026 and 2028.
OPEC’s changing influence in the global oil market
OPEC’s share of global crude oil production has declined over the decades. In 1973, it accounted for over half (52.5%) of global production, but by 2025, this had fallen to 36.7%. Non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil have increased their production, reducing OPEC’s dominance.
The United States has been the world’s largest oil producer since 2018, producing 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025. Russia, a member of OPEC+, was the second-largest producer with 9.1 million barrels per day. Recent events, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have shifted influence over oil prices toward the US, as Gulf producers face export constraints.
Expert perspectives on the future of OPEC
Some analysts view the UAE’s departure as a critical blow to OPEC’s ability to control oil prices. Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer of the Swiss private bank Syz Group, described it as “the end of OPEC as we knew it.” He noted that while OPEC has survived various global crises, it has never before lost a founding-era major producer.
OPEC is expected to continue operating but with significantly reduced capacity to set prices. The recent OPEC+ decision to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day from June, made without mentioning the UAE, was seen as largely symbolic given current market constraints.